MARKET REPORTS
Aspen Snowmass Sotheby’s International Realty offers quarterly statistics for single-family homes, condos, townhomes, and duplexes, as well as shared ownership in the following areas:
Aspen | Snowmass Village | Woody Creek | Old Snowmass
Basalt | Carbondale | Glenwood Springs | New Castle | Silt
Q1 2024 VS 2023
THIS QUARTER'S HOT TAKES:
Of course there’s been plenty of hype about the first $100m+ sale in Aspen earlier this year, as well as the continued strength of the $20m+ market (10 sales already this year, with more in the pipeline)…but from my perspective the fact that it took all the way until 2024 to post the first $100m+ sale is somewhat surprising given Aspen’s stature from a global real estate perspective. There are several Aspen properties easily worth in excess of $100m so don’t be surprised if there are more big deals to come this year.
Speaking of market strength, it’s looking like 2024 will be the first calendar year that average sales price per square foot will exceed $3,000 for single family homes as well as condos/townhomes. Aspen single family homes have been bumping up just under the $3,000/sq ft threshold the past two years, with condo/townhome prices just slightly lower; and with the average list price per square foot across all Aspen property types nearing $4,000 it’s inevitable that either prices will continue to rise OR sellers will need to capitulate significantly.
On that note, the average discount from list price that buyers are achieving in Aspen and Snowmass Village is hovering around 4-6% depending on property type and location – that’s very modestly higher than last year but still historically quite low, indicating that while some buyers are achieving a little more negotiating “power” it is Aspen Snowmass sellers who continue to hold pretty tight to their list price (on average). It is worth noting this particular statistic should be taken into context with the fact that an increasing number of sellers are finding reason to lower their original list price before finding an appropriate revised list price…so with this added dynamic there is evidence that the local real estate market cycle is beginning to swing towards favoring buyers (but still has a way to go before it could be considered a “buyers market”!).
It’s worth noting the average sales prices YTD for Aspen:
Single family homes: $22.7m (!)
Condos/Townhomes: $4m
Vacant Land: $9.4m
In Snowmass Village there hasn’t been any signs of slowing down…while prices in Aspen were relatively flat between 2022-23, there were healthy 7-8%+/- increases in Snowmass Village. 2024 looks like more of the same with listed and pending homes/condos posting average asking prices well in excess of $2,000 per square foot. Of course the big contributor to the Snowmass Village real estate market over the past few years has been the strength of Base Village new condo sales…that trend will continue in 2024-25 with more new “product” in the pipeline to be delivered and sold.
Snowmass Village single family home prices are almost $7m on average (for closed sales) and condo/townhome average sale prices are just over $2.6m…think about that dynamic for just a minute…in all of Aspen Snowmass the lowest priced single family home currently available is $5m!!
Over the past ten years the average annual residential property has appreciated approximately 10-12% per year in Aspen Snowmass…that implies a rate at which property values double every 5-6 years.
It’s been a solid run for Aspen Snowmass real estate, so what could turn the tide? Until the local real estate market hits an inflection point when sellers feel compelled to negotiate more heavily there’s no reason for price increases to slow/stop. Listing inventory is still historically low – there’s less than a one year supply of homes/condos in Aspen, and in Snowmass Village there are only about a dozen single family homes currently available (with an average of over 30 single family home sales each of the past two years in Snowmass Village)! There are some signs the market is slowly downshifting, and this coming summer will be telling about the future, let’s see how it shakes out!
