Deeded Interest
No resolution for paralysis
The Aspen Times | January 21, 2024
Anyone out there still have their Christmas tree up? It’s shining bright at the Bayens house! Yup, it’s still there, ornaments and all. It would be long-gone if it weren’t for our 11-year-old son who, as in year’s past, has been adamant the holiday not come to an end and avoid condemning our seasonal living breathing family member to an early death at the dump.
Honestly, I also suffer some reluctance to let go each year. And I don’t look forward to the day I leave the old gal amongst the other dying and discarded evergreens, or at least as they were, before we cut them down in their prime.
But eventually the lights must come down and before you know it, we find ourselves working off a brand-new calendar; one within which we know not what may be in store. I think it’s only natural there be some trepidation. But eventually and ideally we all manage to move ahead with excitement and resolve.
That said, as this fourth week of January begins, I find myself still stalling to solidify my goals for the coming year. I have been frustrated to find enough time to organize my thoughts, put them on paper and lean into 2024. Stasis is an uncomfortable status for me, so you’ll forgive me as I try to sort it here and now.
Last year was a big one for me. I committed to work with a personal coach, posted a personal best in sales, enjoyed quality time with Bridger and a “just us” getaway with McLean and even hired a personal assistant! So much to acknowledge and celebrate! So why the procrastination and overthink? What’s holding me back from jumping in and embracing the new Anum?
Given what’s going on in our world these days, I think I’m beginning to make sense of my stymied state. Many of the issues we faced in ’23 remain unresolved and in play. Whether it be global politics, inflation, finding housing for long-time locals or discovering a group of Venezuelans living under a bridge in Carbondale, many challenges carry over.
2024 is also an election year and no one is looking forward to a repeat of the embarrassing match-up we witnessed in 2020. Watching that dumpster fire burn again is more than enough reason for some paralysis.
This time last year there were fears of a recession here in the US. Specific to my business, national existing home sales were predicted to continue to struggle as they did by 18% in 2022 due to rising interest rates, higher prices and a continuing shrinking inventory.
It turned out we dodged an economic downturn. But predictions U.S. home sales would continue to slump proved correct as we saw another 19% dip. No wonder as the average price for a home went up another 1% (a record high). The average rate of a 30-year mortgage maxed out to 7.79% in October, the highest since 2000. The result was the lowest number of homes sales in 23 years.
In the last few months mortgage rates have come down by a point last quarter as the FED has hinted there is likely to be no more rate hikes as inflation shows signs of easing. Prices for homes are holding steady however and some experts say they may go even higher should rates fall below 6%.
Not surprisingly, we remain somewhat immune to these trends in the bubble of the Roaring Fork Valley. There are many more cash buyers here than the national average. And with a larger pool of wealthy buyers, high prices are less a concern. The high-end luxury market over $20 million is unfazed. Even so, sales volume is down year-over-year; so too are the number of transactions.
As the first month of ’24 wraps up, many of my fellow brokers admit they aren’t that busy. But that’s really no predictor as our market here is cyclical and that’s exactly how last year started.
So where does that leave us? And has this exercise helped break my personal log jam? I’d submit we’re right back where we started and nope.
The future has been and always be a mixed bag of tragedy and triumph. Nothing is for certain and there are no guarantees. I’ve learned through my coaching last
year looking back has only limited value. And worrying about the future is a waste of time.
We get caught up in our own stories of fear and lack when fulfillment, peace and joy are within us already. How we act and show up right now as individuals and as a people and what we choose to focus on and commit to being today is the only determinate of where we will end up next December.